Shoulder season is supposed to be the reward for waiting. Summer crowds go home, rates fall back to earth, and you get the same city for less money. That is not what fall 2026 looks like in most of the places Americans actually book.

Expedia's fall travel outlook puts lodging in the ten most popular US destinations at roughly 20% higher this fall than it was this summer. Airfare is up about 2% over the same comparison. The discount most travelers plan around has moved, and in some markets it has disappeared entirely.

Fall hotel rates are running above summer rates in the top US markets

Here is the direct answer for anyone searching this. In the ten most-booked US destinations, average fall 2026 lodging prices are about 20% above summer 2026 prices, and airfare is about 2% higher. Fall is no longer automatically the cheap season in high-demand American cities.

That reads backwards until you look at what happened to demand. US hotels sold a record number of room nights in the first half of 2026, about 11.4 million more than the same period in 2025, and room revenue climbed more than $5.4 billion. Supply did not grow anywhere near that fast. When occupancy holds and rooms stay scarce, hotels stop discounting in September the way they used to.

Why the fall discount vanished this year

Three things stacked up at once.

First, summer demand spilled forward. Travelers who used to take one long August trip are now taking two or three shorter ones spread across the calendar. Skift Research found sub-five-day summer bookings up more than 40%. Short trips are easier to schedule in October than a two-week vacation, so October fills up.

Second, the forecasts kept getting revised upward. On August 6, 2026, CoStar and Tourism Economics raised their US hotel outlook, lifting projected ADR growth by 1.1 percentage points and RevPAR growth by 1.6 percentage points, with full-year occupancy nudged to 63.1%. Hotels price against those forecasts. When the outlook improves, the September rate sheet goes up before a single guest checks in.

Third, weekly performance backed the forecast up. For the week ending August 8, 2026, US hotel RevPAR rose 7.2% year over year. Philadelphia occupancy jumped 14.2% to 74.6% with RevPAR up 27.4% to $116.29. Chicago posted the biggest rate lift, ADR up 15.2% to $206.21. Those are not markets about to hand out fall bargains.

Where fall 2026 still costs less than summer

The savings did not evaporate. They relocated.

Expedia flagged Honolulu, Fort Walton Beach and San Diego as the standouts, with combined lodging and flight savings averaging around 15% comparing fall to summer. All three are beach destinations that keep summer weather into October, which is the useful part. You are not trading warmth for the discount.

Europe's second cities are the other place the math still works. Lisbon in early October runs around 24C with hotel rates roughly 32% below peak season. Porto, Valencia, Seville, Krakow and Naples follow the same pattern. Demand shifted toward these cities over the last two years, but they started from a much lower base than Paris or Rome, so the absolute numbers are still reasonable.

How to book fall travel when the season is not doing the discounting

When the calendar stops saving you money, the booking mechanics have to.

Move your check-in to Sunday or Monday. Leisure markets clear out at the start of the week and business markets have not filled yet. In most US cities the Sunday-to-Wednesday window prices 15% to 25% below Thursday-to-Saturday for the identical room.

Push the trip to the second half of October. Early October still carries September's overflow. The last two weeks of October and the first two of November are where rates actually break in most of the northern hemisphere, right up until Thanksgiving demand starts.

Compare a secondary market before you commit. If Philadelphia is running $180, a hotel one metro stop out is often $110 for a comparable room. The 12 minutes on a train is worth $70 a night.

Re-check your rate a week out. Refundable rates are worth more in a year like this because forecasts are being revised constantly. If a hotel misjudged October demand, the correction shows up in the last 10 days.

Take the cashback. This is the part that does not care what season it is. A 10% return on a $1,200 fall trip is $120 back regardless of whether rates went up or down. Book through Best and that $180 Philadelphia room returns $18. Over five nights it covers a day of the trip.

What we would do with a fall 2026 trip right now

If the destination is fixed and it is one of the big ten US markets, book a refundable rate now and watch it. Rates in those markets are not falling on their own, but individual hotels still misprice single nights.

If the destination is flexible, look at Honolulu, San Diego or the Gulf Coast for domestic, and Portugal, Spain or central Europe for international. That is where the gap between summer and fall pricing is still doing what it is supposed to do.

And if the trip is short, which most fall trips now are, the room rate matters more than the flight. Airfare moved 2%. Lodging moved 20%. Spend your optimizing effort where the money actually is.

Questions we keep getting about fall 2026 hotel prices

Is fall 2026 more expensive than fall 2025?
Yes in most US markets. RevPAR has been running 6% to 7% above last year through July and August, and the CoStar and Tourism Economics forecast was revised upward in early August. Expect fall 2026 rates to sit modestly above fall 2025 in the top 25 markets.

When do hotel prices actually drop this fall?
Late October through mid-November is the softest stretch in most of the US and Europe, after peak foliage travel and before Thanksgiving. In beach markets the drop comes later, around mid-November.

Which US destinations are cheaper in fall than summer in 2026?
Honolulu, Fort Walton Beach and San Diego are the clearest cases, with combined lodging and airfare savings averaging about 15%. Most other top-ten markets are running above summer levels.

Does booking earlier help when rates are rising?
It helps if the rate is refundable. Locking a refundable rate early caps your downside while leaving room to rebook if the hotel cuts later. Non-refundable rates only make sense once you are certain, and in a rising market the discount for going non-refundable has narrowed to 5% to 8% at most chains.

Is it worth switching destinations to save money this fall?
If the savings gap is 20% or more, usually yes. A five-night trip at $180 a night versus $140 a night is a $200 difference, which is a flight upgrade or two very good dinners.

We track hotel pricing at Best because the model only works if we understand where rates are going. Book a hotel through Best and you get 10% cashback on the stay. In a fall where the season is not discounting for you, that is the discount.

Images. Hero, autumn street and hotel room via Pexels. Airport departures board by Tiia Monto, used under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons.